Current Events:
Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration is marking the one-year anniversary of the economic stimulus legislation with efforts to show the measure sparked U.S. growth and curbed rising unemployment. Bloomberg's Julianna Goldman reports. (Source: Bloomberg)
Ch. 18 Keynesian Macroeconomics
Chapter Outline 18 Keynesian Macroeconomics
The construction of this chapter takes students from aggregate expenditures and its components (and the determinants for each), through a simple Keynesian model and the multiplier, and then completes the model adding government and the foreign sector. At this point recessionary and inflationary gaps are examined. It is worth noting that the extension of the simple Keynesian model to the complete model (i.e., the addition of government and net exports) is illustrated using the Savings and Investment graph, while the illustration of the recessionary and inflationary gaps employ the complete aggregate expenditure figures (similar to those used earlier in the chapter). The chapter concludes with a section on the Great Depression and Keynesian analysis.
The Balanced Budget Multiplier, p. 490, 10:39
Balance budget multiplier in Germany discussing Keynes.
This film examines the multiplier effects of balanced budget expenditure in Germany, where the government has increased taxes in the West to fund development of the East.
Adding Net Exports, p. 490
Recessionary and Inflationary Gaps, p. 491
Recessionary Gap, p. 491
Inflationary Gap, p. 492
Checkpoint: The Full Keynesian Model, p. 493
The Great Depression and Keynesian Analysis, p. 493
Chapter Checkpoints
Aggregate Expenditures, p. 494
Question: Figure 3 earlier illustrated that investment spending is much more
volatile than consumption spending. Why is this?
The point is to check that students can: apply their knowledge of the determinants of consumption spending and investment to help evaluate the relative volatility of each component of aggregate expenditures.
The Simple Keynesian Model, p. 495
Question: Business journalists, pundits, economists, and policymakers all pay
attention to the results of the Conference Board’s monthly survey of 5,000 households called the Consumer Confidence Index.
When the index is rising, this is good news for the economy and when it is falling concerns are often heard that it portends a recession. Why is this survey important as a tool in forecasting where the economy is headed in the near future?
The point is to check that students can: synthesize their knowledge of the multiplier effect of a decrease in consumer spending with the importance of consumer spending as the major portion of aggregate expenditures in order to see the potential for a decrease in consumer spending to provide impetus for a recession.
The Full Keynesian Model, p. 495
Question: If the government is considering reducing taxes to stimulate the economy
does it matter if the MPS is .25 or .33?
The point is to check that students can: understand how changes in the size of the MPS affect the value of the multiplier and so influence the impact of a policy change. By extension, students should appreciate that the government needs to estimate factors such as the multiplier in planning policy changes.
Extended Examples in the Chapter
The Great Depression and the Keynesian Analysis
This section provides data that can help capture the magnitude of the Great
Depression: the stock market lost 90% of its value compared to the beginning of the 1930s, unemployment soared from 3.2% in 1929 to nearly 25%. Moreover, the Great Depression lasted for roughly a decade. The Keynesian model can be used to illustrate the situation of the time and to explain Keynes’s reasoning that an “injection” of government spending was needed.
For more about the Great Depression, including a timeline and some photos, see the PBS Web site at http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/rails/timeline/.
Important points to note: the distrust of the government and banks, the resentment of foreign workers, the persistence of the belief in the classical model (as illustrated in President Herbert Hoover’s remarks at the beginning of the period), the need to banish fear as expressed by President Franklin Roosevelt (another term for a severe lack of consumer confidence).
Examples Used in the End--of--Chapter Questions
For Further Analysis
Illustrating the Keynesian Model
This example can be used as an in-class small group exercise or as an individual in-class exercise. It is designed to complement the text’s material on the Keynesian model by requiring students to draw the graphs that illustrate the analysis. The student handout provides graphical illustration of the analysis behind the answers to end-of-chapter Questions and Problems 8, 12, and 14.
Web-Based Exercise
Keynesian Policy in Japan
This example can be used as a small group exercise or as an individual exercise.
The exercise provides an opportunity to see the Keynesian model and policies
applied to a recent example, Japan since the 1990s. This overcomes a student’s tendency to view this material as irrelevant because it is discussed in terms of the 1930s. Requiring additional research can turn this exercise into a more extensive assignment.
Read the essay “Explaining Japan’s Recession,” by Benjamin Powell (posted on
11/19/2002 on the Web site of the Ludwig von Mises Institute: http://www.mises.org) and answer the following:
1) What is the Keynesian explanation for the economic downturn in Japan?
2) What Keynesian policies have been tried? How successful have they been?
3) What does the author suggest should be done in Japan?
Tips:
One challenge in this topic is to separate business investment in real plant and
equipment from people’s financial investment in stocks, bonds, etc. Students will
likely be able to grasp the importance of consumer confidence, understanding what
amounts to a “self-fulfilling prophecy;” that is, if consumers are fearful of a recession and don’t spend then that (multiplied) decrease in spending can cause a recession.
A good analogy for the Keynesian view is to liken the economy to a car with a
low battery that needs a boost to get running again.
HANDOUT 18
Average Propensities to Consume and Save, p. 477, 11:37
An interview with John Quelch, Professor, Harvard Business School. In a tough economy, companies can succeed if they understand their customers' evolving consumption patterns and fine-tune their marketing strategies accordingly.
William Baumol. - Air date: 06-12-99
William Jack Baumol (born February 26, 1922) is a New York University economics professor (although he is also affiliated with Princeton University) who has written extensively about labor market and other economic factors that affect the economy. He also made valuable contributions to the history of economic thought. He is among the 500 best economists in the world according to IDEAS/RePEc.
Among his better-known contributions are the theory of contestable markets, the Baumol-Tobin model of transactions demand for money, Baumol's cost disease, which discusses the rising costs associated with service industries, and Pigou taxes.[1]
The 2006 Annual Meetings of the American Economic Association held a special session in his name, and honoring his many years of work, where 12 papers on entrepreneurship were presented. http://www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_pape...
The British magazine, The Economist published an article about William Baumol and his lifelong work to develop a place in economic theory for the entrepreneur (March 11, 2006, pp 68), much of which owes its genesis to Joseph Schumpeter. They note that traditional microeconomic theory holds a place for 'prices' and 'firms' but not for that (seemingly) important engine of innovation, the entrepreneur. Baumol is given credit for helping to remedy this shortcoming: "Thanks to Mr. Baumol's own painstaking efforts, economists now have a bit more room for entrepreneurs in their theories."
Baumol is a trustee of the Economists for Peace and Security.
1. Be sure to study for subsequent Ch. 16 (Quizzes and Test, TBA).
2. Read Ch. 17 (we will have Quizzes and a Test on Ch. 17, TBA).
3. I intended that these parts of the assignment is simply to review the older material for the Test; you do not need to re-write the answers as part of the HW: Ch. 15 Questions and Problems, p. 423, #11-15.
4. This material, in contrast to the older material, is new and you should write it out as part of your HW. Ch. 18: Extended Examples in the Chapter.
The Great Depression and the Keynesian Analysis
This section provides data that can help capture the magnitude of the Great
Depression: the stock market lost 90% of its value compared to the beginning of the 1930s, unemployment soared from 3.2% in 1929 to nearly 25%. Moreover, the Great Depression lasted for roughly a decade. The Keynesian model can be used to illustrate the situation of the time and to explain Keynes’s reasoning that an “injection” of government spending was needed.
For more about the Great Depression, including a timeline and some photos, see the PBS Web site at http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/rails/timeline/.
Important points to note: how would you characterize how people felt about the government of the time and what they felt about banks? Did people resent foreign workers? Did they seem to belief in the classical model of economics? Note: President Herbert Hoover’s remarks at the beginning of the period). What did President Franklin Roosevelt seek to banish? Do you think there was a lack of consumer confidence? Why or why not?
